Since 2022, the voluntary carbon market (VCM) has been shaken by a dramatic loss of confidence. According to the 2023 Ecosystem Marketplace report, total market value fell from $1.9 billion in 2022 to $723 million in 2023 — a drop of 61% in a single year.
Yet within this overall contraction, one segment not only resists but strengthens: high-integrity carbon projects with clear, measurable co-benefits — particularly social and community-based impacts.
In other words: the market is shrinking, but what survives is priced higher.
Community-based NBS projects are emerging not as “nice to have,” but as the core premium assets of the future.
A shrinking market — and a sharp pivot toward “quality-first”
For 2024, global transaction estimates point to a VCM size of around $1.4 billion, with flat demand. (IFC, early 2025 estimates)
At the same time, the 2025 MSCI “State of Integrity in the Global Carbon-Credit Market” report shows that a significant proportion of the 4 000+ projects assessed failed to meet high-integrity criteria, pushing buyers toward a very selective purchasing stance.
Price data confirm this shift.
According to Senken’s aggregated market indices:
- 2021 average VCM price: $4.04 per tonne
- 2022 average price: $7.37 per tonne (↑ 82%)
- 2023 average price: $6.97 per tonne (slight correction)
Volumes fall; willingness to pay for high-quality credits rises.
In this new landscape, community-anchored NBS projects are squarely in the “quality” category.
The numbers are unambiguous: co-benefit projects command a premium
A 2025 Green Earth analysis (based on late-2023 market prices) provides the clearest breakdown so far:
- Nature-based credits: ~40% premium over market average.
- Credits with one or more certified co-benefits: ~78% premium. (Green Earth, 2025)
Similarly, a 2023 Quantum Commodity Intelligence study showed premiums of up to 35% for credits with social or biodiversity co-benefits.
Sylvera’s 2024 State of Carbon Ratings report adds another critical datapoint:
- While global retirements stagnate, retirements of “high-credibility” credits (rated BB or above) rose by 25% between 2023 and 2024, from 33.4 M to 41.7 M credits.
Demand is not increasing overall — but the composition of demand is shifting sharply toward high-integrity, high-co-benefit credits.
In the same period, ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles (CCP) assessment (2024) concluded that about one-third of legacy credits failed to meet high-integrity thresholds — especially large renewable projects with limited community benefit.
Buyers moved away from them, toward socially anchored NBS.
Why community-based projects attract the strongest premium
Three forces drive this price differential.
1. Lower long-term risk
Buyers increasingly understand that permanence is not a biological function — it is a social one.
Projects with transparent benefit-sharing, stable local governance, or community revenue streams systematically score higher on risk-adjusted ratings. (MSCI 2025)
2. Strong narrative and ESG alignment
The Green Earth dataset (2023–2025) shows that premiums rise with the ability to demonstrate verifiable social impact. Companies use these stories in ESG reports and investor communication — stories rooted in numbers, not slogans.
3. Higher permanence and fewer shocks
Projects with tangible community benefits have lower deforestation reversal rates, better conflict resilience, and stronger local protection incentives. This is precisely the criterion that buyers use to justify paying more.
The “premium” isn’t moral. It’s financial:
less risk + better storytelling + stronger permanence = higher value.
When co-benefits become measurable: three grounded case studies
Komaza — Kenya (micro-forestry at scale)
As of early 2025, Komaza works with ~25 000 smallholder farmers, has planted over 8 million trees, and expanded tree cover by ~9 500 hectares in coastal and central Kenya.
(Company data, 2024–2025)
Impact studies show that a significant share of farmer income is reinvested in education, healthcare, and household improvements — a key reason why Komaza-linked credits command attention from sophisticated buyers.
Yaeda Valley — Tanzania (community REDD+)
Plan Vivo 2022 data:
- 32 000 hectares of community-managed forests
- 177 284 tCO₂e avoided annually
- 171 100 trees protected per year
Historical payments (2013–2015) reached ~$75 000 to Hadza and Datoga communities, used for ranger patrols, education, and health access.
This is the archetype of a REDD+ credit with strong permanence anchored in community ownership.
African Bamboo — Ethiopia
A 2025 seed-capital program report indicates the project created:
- 6 033 total jobs, including
- 3 606 opportunities for smallholders and
- 2 427 youth/women-focused roles
A 2025 training program update also reports 36 000 people trained in bamboo-processing and green jobs, 66% of them women.
When such a project receives carbon certification, buyers perceive it as a high-integrity, low-risk asset.
These numbers matter because they transform “co-benefits” from an aspiration into something quantifiable, reportable, auditable.
What this means for NBS developers
The implications are direct.
A project that can document:
- long-term protection of 20 000+ hectares,
- 1 000–2 000 local jobs created or supported,
- 20–30% of carbon revenues redistributed through community funds,
- and a measurable indicator of social progress (school attendance, women’s income diversification…)
can legitimately claim a 30–70% price premium — based on the ranges observed between 2023 and 2025 across multiple market analyses.
By contrast, a project without verifiable co-benefits is increasingly treated as a low-grade commodity credit.
The market is telling a simple story:
A carbon credit backed by a community with a long-term interest in the project is worth more than a credit no one will defend when pressure mounts.
This is why community-based NBS projects are not a trend, but the structural future of the premium segment.